The party can only do so much. It’s the people voting that ultimately decide.

I don’t get it.

No that 8 to 12 seats includes all those states, finalized and not: 1 in LA, 1 in MS, 4 in FL, 1 in AL, 1 in SC, 1 in TN, and 2 maybe 3 in VA. That’s 11 or 12.

Kentucky is not redistricting but that would only be 1 more if they did.

And again that’s assuming they all vote R. Gerrymandering creates more districts at the expense of making them weaker, which is precisely why Kentucky GOP doesn’t want to.

it wasn’t until California and Virginia took up the process that we were even considering the Democrats would take the house

The House has been likely to flip Dem since the beginning of 2025, before all this redistricting started. This Congress began with a 3-seat Republican majority, 220-215. That is not a big enough margin to overcome the expected flip of an average midterm cycle of 27 seats.

I did, did you?

Republicans can only lose a few seats and still hold the House majority. The political winds have been moving in the direction of Democrats given President Trump’s low approval ratings, and the president’s party usually loses seats in a midterm.

Since you’re apparently going off vibes and not actual math or history, here’s a short breakdown for you.

The current House makeup is 217 to 212 (plus 1 independent and 5 vacancies). That’s a 3-seat advantage for the Republicans.

The historical average of a party flipping midterm seats is 27, with that number being higher for less popular presidents.

In the 2010 midterms the Republicans picked up 63 seats. This was right after a recession with an Obama approval rating in the mid-40s. Trump’s approval rating is currently around 36% and the economy isn’t doing well right now either.

Redistricting in the South is underway with some having been finalized and some very much still up in the air. If all those hold for Republicans and - very importantly - if all those new districts vote R, that nets the GOP between 8 and 12 seats.

In an average midterm election, that wouldn’t be enough to overcome the expected flip; that’s without any sort of blue wave. But there most certainly will be, as it’s already underway.

Democrats have flipped 30 state-level seats since 2024 and many more local ones, in some places by as many as 30 points. They have over performed by 4.5 points on average and are D+6 on a generic ballot.

So while this race to the bottom in gerrymandering is not ideal and it sucks not to gain those seats in VA, this really isn’t anything to get worked up over. It doesn’t mean give up but it doesn’t mean not to bust your ass either.

I would love to see your math on why Dems are no longer favored to win the House.

40%? What construction worker is making $700,000? I’d love that job.

Willie Stroker? Or Willie not? Only one way to find out! Tune in next week!

I think I paid $4 for it like 10 years ago? Absolutely worth it.

Well you better go vote because you ain’t gonna do shit else and you know it.

I’m cautiously optimistic it could backfire. Gerrymandering inherently creates weaker districts and Democrats have been over performing since 2024, some places as high as 20 or 30 points.

Ok boomer

Life is dirty and you should be washing your sheets weekly, you’ll get over it.

The whole universe was in a hot, dense state